Thursday, October 2, 2008

Memo to the Obama Campaign

There is no doubt the current financial crisis is by far the single largest “short-term” factor affecting the election—- and, beyond the partisan bedrock, short-term forces are going to help determine where the topsoil settles. By voicing support for the bill, albeit half-heartedly, however, you have already cast his lot with the bill and the centrists who supported it. Therefore, you have a vested interest in seeing it pass.

While getting more involved in the bailout bill has many inherent risks, it is worth considering for several reasons. One, McCain already shot his wad trying to play the hero the first time. Unlike him, you should not suspend your campaign, both to avoid tying yourself to any failure, and to reinforce your previous point that whoever becomes president will have to be able to multi-task.

Now, since the 228 votes that did in the bailout bill in the House came from all directions, it might seem an impossible task to create a cohesive strategy to resurrect it. However, it is important to remember that the 205 votes, by both Democrats and Republicans, that were in favor of the bill exceeded both of the alternatives: 133 presumably more conservative Republicans who want more individual responsibility and fiscal conservatism, and 95 presumably liberal Democrats who want more protections for “Main Street.”

The key, then, is to continue to play the calm, cerebral role behind the scenes that you have been both praised and criticized for. You need to process what has happened and see what incentives can be included so that both sides can have some political cover if they are convinced to switch their votes.

If you can play in instrumental role in forming a compromise that can peel off enough votes from either side, you will have shown two things that voters are looking for tangible evidence of—leadership and bipartisanship. If you can present these as extensions to the core principles you announced a few months back, well, you might even be able to add visionary to the list.