Bottom line: there are two ways this whole surge thing can end up. As Thomas Ricks, author of the aptly-titled Fiasco, put it over the summer, there are 2 basic scenarios:
1. The surge goes well: the downtick in violence is accompanied by political breakthrough, which allows the US to draw down its troops to the realm of 60-80,000 by 2009.
2. The surge does not go well: violence continues amidst political turmoil, and political pressure dovetails with logistical constraints, which forces the US to draw down its troops to the realm of 60-80,000 by 2009.
In the words of the Pentagon (apparently), “We’re out of Schlitz.” The decisions have already been made. Not only are we staying the course, but there is no real alternative.
To their credit, although they have been avoiding the details (such as the actual number of troops involved here), Senators Clinton and Obama seem to be recognizing this with their latest plans. It all comes down to semantics: what do you call it? “Withdrawal” has become equated with “defeat,” while “limited withdrawal”… well, guys, we don’t recommend it. Plus, if we do pull out, well, the movies we’ve seen usually don’t end at that moment.
